I. Introduction

We are currently witnessing the development of a second generation of quantum technologies. First generation quantum technologies include tools like lasers and transistors—innovations that today form the backbone of technologies like MRI scanners, lasers, mobile phones, and computers. Understanding the rules of quantum mechanics that govern the world on an atomic and sub-atomic scale enabled us to build these technologies.

Second generation quantum technologies include quantum computing, communications, and sensing. Unlike the previous generation, these technologies are created by manipulating and controlling fragile quantum systems to produce novel capabilities for the production, processing, and transmission of digital information on a global scale. These technologies are today in their infancy.

The timeline for useful second-generation quantum applications is uncertain. Quantum sensors will likely be the first of the portfolio to move from lab to industry and will be particularly useful for submarine navigation, stealth craft detection, and underground surveying. Quantum communications networks have also shown early promise for transmitting hyper-secure information across vast distances.

A diversity of different approaches to building quantum computers are currently being explored. However, there are still significant and complex technical barriers to overcome to build a fault-tolerant, useful quantum computer. These include environmental interference (known as “noise”), scaling up the number of entangled qubits, and error correction. While this reality limits anyone’s ability to predict the full potential of their impacts, the first commercially viable applications of quantum computing are expected to be in the pharmaceutical, automotive, and finance sectors.

This novel suite of emerging quantum technologies is built on entrenched political, social, technological, and economic systems. Understanding these contextual details is essential to directing the development of quantum technologies toward more ethical ends.

Kate Crawford
“I'm going to quote Paul Thomas Anderson here. I think, you know, we might be done with the past, but the past is not done with us. And as much as we might like to think that this is a new future technology, it is very much built on a range of both political and computational approaches, which will continue to be part of the fabric of quantum mechanics.”

Kate Crawford: “I’m going to quote Paul Thomas Anderson here. I think, you know, we might be done with the past, but the past is not done with us. And as much as we might like to think that this is a new future technology, it is very much built on a range of both political and computational approaches, which will continue to be part of the fabric of quantum mechanics.”

II. Public Investment in Quantum

Today’s global quantum industry is built on decades of fundamental quantum science research, publicly funded by states. Until recently, most government effort focused on quantum has been centralised in the academic research environment by way of centres of excellence, applied R&D centres, and innovation hubs. As of 2021, 17 countries have some form of national initiative or strategy, either existing or under development, to support quantum technology R&D.

Quantum Effort Worldwide

Historically, defence funding is deeply entangled with public investment in emerging technologies. In the U.S., for example, DARPA (the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency​) is not only one of the largest funders of basic science research but is also responsible for financing the development of strategic technologies like the internet, GPS and drones. Many quantum startups today got their start from defence grants.

David Mohring
“Feynman in the 80’s is often credited with bringing quantum computing to the more popular — if you call physics department popular — community. But it was really Shor, when he discovered this algorithm, that captured the imagination.”

David Mohring: “Feynman in the 80’s is often credited with bringing quantum computing to the more popular — if you call physics department popular — community. But it was really Shor, when he discovered this algorithm, that captured the imagination. It wasn’t the algorithm in and of itself so much that got people interested. It was that there was an algorithm. It wasn’t Shor alone. There were some other ones that are about that same time a little before by Deutsch that generated some interest. But what made Shor’s algorithm so interesting is it captured the imagination of the government. And the government saw this, obviously, with decryption. They started funding immediately. And Ion-Q co-founder Chris Monroe was at NIST and the group of David Wineland back in the mid-90’s, and they were one of the first ones to receive funding from the government. And one of my old colleagues was actually allowed to go there during this first kick-off program review, like analysis of how are you doing with the money that we’ve given you. He was allowed to stand up and say, I am so-and-so with the NSA and I’m allowed to say we’re interested in quantum computing. He sat back down. And of course, they’re interested in quantum computing. It has to do with cryptography. There’s no secret there. It’s in Wikipedia. It’s everywhere. And really, the intelligence community has funded quantum computing development for really that first 20 years. And it is slowly going up. If you look at the grand scheme of things, how much funding is going into quantum computing, obviously as a physicist, we’re very excited about the growth of the community. But if you compare it to many of the other activities that are funded by the government, it’s kind of dwarfed. I was part of a group that wrote a framework of the US government… Not just quantum computing but quantum technologies in general. It was published, I believe in 2016, it was about $200 million a year, which sounds like a lot. But if you consider like the overall budget of the of the US government is not relatively so large.”

Over the last decade, government support for quantum has begun to shift focus from fundamental research to research commercialisation. Existing systems of commercial innovation that quantum startups are ushered into are problematic. Ethical issues include over-promising and hype, a lack of diversity, and contribution to continued disparity of wealth on a national level. These systems remain unquestioned by governments that bolster them through programs intended to bridge the gap between academia and industry.

Fleur Johns
“Every state wants its own Silicon Valley, including Australia. I think this is something that we need to bear in mind when trying to envisage the regulation of quantum technologies or perhaps even more ambitiously, trying to imagine a quantum jurisprudence, nowhere can this undertaking be divorced from the inequality that is baked into our current global settings for financing and nurturing technological innovation.”

Fleur Johns: “… I wanted to focus on the ubiquity of inequality in the jurisdictions and settings in which quantum technologies are largely being developed. Recent advances in technology have, I think, been built in vast inequality machines. That’s the case. Obviously. I’m talking metaphorically about a vast inequality machine. That’s certainly the case in those places that are now the main centers of quantum development, such as the US and China. In the US, for example, corporate and securities law and remuneration arrangements in combination with tax laws ensure that financial benefits from recent advances have flowed overwhelmingly to a very few. Mandatory arbitration and non-disclosure agreements favored by technology companies put pay disputes and discrimination claims. And they’re like out of collective sight and bargaining. This has become the model that other states typically aspire to reproduce, every state wants its own Silicon Valley, including Australia. I think this is something that we need to bear in mind when trying to envisage the regulation of quantum technologies or perhaps even more ambitiously, trying to imagine a quantum jurisprudence, nowhere can this undertaking be divorced from the inequality that is baked into our current global settings for financing and nurturing technological innovation.”

III. Quantum Commercialisation

The biggest technology companies in the world, such as Google, IBM, Microsoft, and Amazon are all working on quantum computing projects. Pharmaceutical companies, including Astra Zeneca and GSK are invested in the promise of quantum computing for drug design and development; automotive companies like BMW and Volkswagen and financial organisations like Commonwealth Bank in Australia and Wells Fargo in the U.S. are also looking toward quantum computing use cases in these sectors. However, many quantum researchers remain hesitant to identify potential use cases for these technologies.

Number of Quantum Organizations by Date Graph

This phase of the commercialisation of quantum technologies reveals several tensions between academia and industry that merit attention. Research commercialisation has implications for the maintenance of an open learning environment characterised by collaboration and information sharing. This concern is driven by commercial realities, such as IP, relating to technology transfer.

The pipeline effects of a lack of gender and racial diversity in physics as a discipline, combined with a persistent lack of diversity across startup founders, poses a significant hurdle for enabling more diverse and inclusive systems of academic entrepreneurship in quantum.

The breakneck pace of venture capital also presents a challenge for paying due diligence to any potential ethical and/or socially harmful downstream impacts these technologies may have. Though some may argue the ‘move fast and break things’ era popularised by Facebook is over, the ideological foundations of this startup culture persist in many ways that will likely have significant implications for the ethical development and deployment of novel information technologies like quantum computing.

Quantum computing is an uneasy fit for venture capital investment, which usually involves a 10-year payoff period for investors. While timelines for technological maturity of quantum computing vary, many place its commercial viability beyond this period. Regardless, quantum computing is being accommodated for in the venture capital environment, leaving many to wonder if the amount of hype required to maintain investor interest over such a large period of time is sustainable. Some have predicted that a “quantum winter” of stagnating investment in these technologies will ensue once the bubble pops.

Yet, balancing hype with realistic expectations is a tricky business. Perhaps even more-so when it comes to the widely claimed “counter-intuitive” theoretical foundations of quantum technologies. Public engagement and education around quantum that is accessible to a diversity of audiences and grounded in factual information is difficult to come by.

Michael J Biercuk
“There is a lot of excitement about quantum that is not always well-informed, to the level that we have quantum dishwasher detergent. It has absolutely nothing to do with quantum, it's just a sexy term. And the sexier something becomes the more likely it is to attract the attention of people who perhaps have money.”

Michael J Biercuk:I’ve been obviously very excited about developments in the field and it’s been an amazing transition to see research carried out almost exclusively in university laboratories, moving over not just to large corporates but also to venture capital backed startups like my own, like Q-CTRL. There is a lot of excitement about quantum that is not always well-informed, to the level that we have quantum dishwasher detergent. It has absolutely nothing to do with quantum, it’s just a sexy term. And the sexier something becomes the more likely it is to attract the attention of people who perhaps have money. This is something that is sometimes called ‘dumb investors,’ ‘dumb money.’ It’s understood in venture capital that if investors who are well capitalized, but not savvy about either technology or building businesses, start pouring money into the industry they run the risk of destabilising it because they can set terms for new companies that make them fundamentally un-investable in the future. My concern is that with all the excitement and attention that comes from legitimate successes in our community that we start attracting people who are not savvy investors, who may fundamentally destabilise our community, but may also lead to some kind of crash in the availability of funding for the more legitimate players. It’s a concern. I’m not saying that it’s all going to come crashing down, but it may get more challenging at times when we’re not delivering on the timelines that non-savvy investors would expect.”

IV. AI ethics

Guidelines for the ethical development and deployment of other recent technologies like AI can provide a useful case study for understanding how (and how not) to influence the development of a more ethical and responsible quantum technology sector.

AI ethics as a field and area of research exploded in 2018-2019. It acknowledges that autonomous decision-making systems can have harmful, if unintended, consequences when introduced into social institutions. A few online platforms keep a current inventory of all AI ethics principles, guidelines, and governance frameworks published around the world, and several research papers present meta-analyses of these documents. Algorithm Watch’s AI Ethics Global Inventory is made up of more than 160 documents from private companies, governmental agencies, academic and research organisations, intergovernmental or supranational organisations around the world. So far, the vast proliferation of ethical AI guidelines and frameworks have not made a noticeable difference in the development trajectory of AI technologies or on the industry as a whole.

Helen Nissenbaum
“And here's the first one that you may be familiar with: Don't be evil. Maybe we sum up all the ethical principles just with that. Don't be evil. As if presenting these high level principles is going to yield more ethical behaviour. Who could argue with those high-level principles?”

Helen Nissenbaum:And there have been tons of high-level principles, particularly from the AI industry, from the industry side of digital technology. And here are some of the examples. You see Microsoft and Google, of course, constantly trying to present themselves as responsible actors in this domain. Fairness, inclusiveness, transparency, as Gavin talked a little bit about, privacy, accountability, make the technology safe, incorporate privacy by design, and so on. And here are a few more of our favourites: Salesforce, talking about human value, alignment, transparency, safety. Facebook talking about responsible and thoughtful use of AI and concerned about the unintended biases that can happen when you apply machine learning or facial recognition and so forth, all of which they go ahead and do. Finally, here’s one from the European Commission. Similar things: safety, privacy, transparency, non-discrimination and so forth. And here’s the first one that you may be familiar with: Don’t be evil. Maybe we sum up all the ethical principles just with that. Don’t be evil. As if presenting these high level principles is going to yield more ethical behaviour. Who could argue with those high-level principles? And that’s what I want to talk about, because I think that unless we drill down into some of the more boring details, I mean, I don’t want to say boring, more complete. I’m not sure we’re accomplishing very much with those details.”

The harmful impacts and ethical quandaries presented by AI technologies that have been applied in real-world settings emerge regularly. Generally, the groups of people who stand to gain are already in a position of power, while those who lose—whether it be to mass surveillance or baked-in bias—are usually the most vulnerable populations. AI technologies have been shown to reproduce systems of inequality and reinforce power imbalances. Quantum is likely to replicate these same patterns if industry norms remain unchecked.

Kate Crawford
“The other concern for me here is, of course, the concern that persists with large scale A.I., which is the concentration of power that goes alongside who can actually build quantum computers. We're seeing this already. Of course, it is many of the large companies that we know from the moment are again capturing Quantum. So, we have to think very closely around who will benefit most from these technologies and who stands to actually experience the greatest harms.”

Kate Crawford: “The other concern for me here is, of course, the concern that persists with large scale A.I., which is the concentration of power that goes alongside who can actually build quantum computers. We’re seeing this already. Of course, it is many of the large companies that we know from the moment are again capturing Quantum. So, we have to think very closely around who will benefit most from these technologies and who stands to actually experience the greatest harms.”

One potential use case for quantum computing is in accelerating the capacity of some machine learning algorithms. With this future application in mind, it is not only the mechanics of AI ethics that require closer inspection, but also the specific risks or harms posed by these and other technologies that quantum may enhance.

V. Conclusion: A Quantum Opportunity?

As quantum technologies move from lab to market, governments, NGOs, regulators, and civil society have an opportunity to re-shape our approach to commercial innovation. There are lessons to be learned from previous waves of innovation, including AI, from examining the tensions and challenges arising at this critical point in the development of quantum technologies, and from understanding the ethical issues inherent to current practices of academic entrepreneurship and research commercialisation.

Nikita Chiu
“But I think it would be truly revolutionary if instead of conceptualizing development in this area as mirroring the space race or the arms race during the Cold War, but instead take this opportunity to use science and technology as a vehicle, a driver for international cooperation.”

Nikita Chiu: “I think the emergence of quantum technology has countless significant consequences for the whole international community, for all states. But I think it would be truly revolutionary if instead of conceptualizing development in this area as mirroring the space race or the arms race during the Cold War, but instead take this opportunity to use science and technology as a vehicle, a driver for international cooperation. I think that’s very much a possibility, as long as we start to conceptualize quantum as an opportunity instead of as a competition.”

Nikita Chiu
“I think instead of looking at different emerging technologies in isolation we should try to understand technology as a whole, because you can only build so many international regimes, like space regimes or nuclear regimes. We really need to rewire our thinking.”

Nikita Chiu: “I think instead of looking at different emerging technologies in isolation we should try to understand technology as a whole, because you can only build so many international regimes, like space regimes or nuclear regimes. We really need to rewire our thinking. Any possibility of using technology for malicious purposes is in our mind. If we do not try to use it for malicious purposes then technology would not pose any catastrophic consequences to society. So what I’m trying to do is very much to encourage alternative ways to think about emerging technologies that have a lot of uncertainty associated with them, because I think if we want to use technology to promote cooperation instead of competition, to improve our lives, instead of for malicious purpose then we can achieve that.”

The ways in which this next generation of quantum technologies will impact our world depends on the systems of innovation that produce them and the use cases that are prioritised. Research collaboration, use cases that promise to benefit the many over the few, expanding access and education, inviting a greater diversity of participants into the quantum innovation space, and considering harmful downstream effects before technologies are deployed—these are all examples of targets and activities that can not only improve the quality of our technological outputs but also the ethics of our systems of commercial innovation.

Helen Nissenbaum
“If we accept this idea that ethics can be found in technology, then it's possible to take this practical turn and this means looking at the creators and the regulations of technology and saying it's not enough to take the technology is given, and then think about the ethical implications afterwards. One needs to think about the ethical issues from the ground up.”

Helen Nissenbaum: “If we accept this idea that ethics can be found in technology, then it’s possible to take this practical turn and this means looking at the creators and the regulations of technology and saying it’s not enough to take the technology is given, and then think about the ethical implications afterwards. One needs to think about the ethical issues from the ground up. Now, don’t be big and grand questions, “why technology favours tyranny”. But I think of the small, granular and gritty details that can be trivial details, that are settled by the technologist that can actually make the difference between promoting a certain ethical value or not. The values at play framework has these components which is discovering the values and implementing them in systems and then verifying. And I’m not going to spend any more time on the whole ideas, but I wanted to talk about the definition, why it’s so important to define these values in operational terms. Not just ‘do no evil’, but what does it actually mean in the context of a particular system?

So, I’m hungry. I haven’t eaten dinner yet. And this comes to me. We ask the question of dividing a pie fairly among four people. And I want to ask you how you do it. And if we were together, maybe you’d raise your hand and give me some ideas. But I suspect that one of the first things you might say is that you are divided equally among four people in this way, four equal slices. And then maybe someone in the room would say, but hang on a sec. That slice on the bottom right hand corner, if it’s right to you, is smaller. That was a bad cutting job. But then other people might object, and they may say, no, that’s not the right principle of fairness. Maybe the fair way to divide the pie is to give more to the people who need it. Maybe they’re hungrier and they need it. Or those who deserve it. Did you just run a marathon? Here, you can have the biggest piece. Or maybe those who are rich and they can pay more, or perhaps the winner takes all. So what I’m saying is that it really matters what concept of fairness is driving the particular system, design or application. It’s not just a technical question, what are we optimizing for? And it’s not simple with generalities. The same goes with privacy. And I’m not going to go into this case because I’m already running out of time. But when we come back to comments or declarations like Google’s ‘don’t be evil’, we have to ask, what does that mean in operational terms? And when we have Facebook saying, oh, we’re going to be responsible with AI, we have to say, well, how does that match up with these ideas? The fact that Facebook’s algorithms are known to exploit the human brain attraction to divisiveness, that they are known to be designed to polarize. How do we comport these high-level declarations with the gritty details?”

Mechanics

After the atomic bomb and the semi-conductor, a new generation of quantum technologies is emerging with profound societal, geopolitical and ethical implications.